As we look back on 2023, we saw interest rates that climbed more than 4x what we had seen in the previous two years. That on its own is enough to challenge a thriving Edmonton real estate market. But as a buyer's purchasing power decreases in Edmonton, the same challenges were seen in other major markets such as British Columbia and Ontario. Many made plans to migrate to Alberta as their best opportunity for affordable living and better quality of life. By the end of Q3, Alberta saw a net migration of more than 145,000 people. This helped keep the market balanced as many local buyers were forced to sit on the sidelines in anticipation of more comfortable rates in the future.
Take a look at the sections below as we breakdown the main sectors of the market that best relate to the clients of Ryan Debler & Associates.
Edmonton Single Family Homes
Home sales $1M+ in 2023 totalled 231 in 2023, up slightly compared to 227 sales in 2023. The 2023 market did start off slow. By the midway point of the year, sales were down by more than 25% compared to the same period last year. That means, the second half saw a huge shift. In the second half of 2023, sales numbers were up 45% compared to the second half of 2022!
Interestingly enough, the home sales between $750K and $999K were down significantly in 2023 with 423 from the total 563 sales in 2022. This represents a 25% drop in the sales numbers. What was the main driver of this decrease? Buyer purchasing power and buyer confidence.
The first half of 2023 was slow due to the rise in interest rates. To the contrary of many peoples thoughts that “luxury buyers don’t get mortgages”, many of these buyers under $1.5M for the most part will still have a mortgage anywhere from 50% to 80% of the home's value. Especially with interest rates as low as they were, borrowing money was almost free.
In 2022, there were a lot of people that were able to put together the down payment and qualify for a home that typically would be out of their budget. When rates were around 1.7%, a $5000/ month mortgage payment would put you into a $1.45M home. Fast forward to 2023 where rates were sitting around 6.5% and that same mortgage payment of $5000/ month now only gets you an $800K house.
The $1M+ market slowed in the first half of 2023 but wasn’t as reactive as the $750K to $999K market and actually recovered by the end of the year. The challenges in the sub $1M market mainly stem from the fact that in 2022, these buyers under $1M simply just needed to qualify for the payment and slightly more money down. Purchasers over $1M still needed to put down a full 20% which as a buyer, you either have it or you don’t. With lower rates we also saw many buyers purchasing well beyond their means. A situation that wasn’t as common with higher rates.
These buyers between $750K and $999K saw their purchasing power drop from an $800K home to under $500K! With that said, many buyers in this price point were forced to wait as they couldn’t move up in the market. This creates a massive hole in that sector of the market while tightening the supply in the $500K and under sector of the market. Overall the decrease in demand balanced the market.
Edmonton Luxury High Rise Condos ($600,000+)
While condo buyers faced the same challenges as single family home buyers with respect to the decrease in the buyer's purchasing power, we saw an interesting shift in this market as well. The number of sales in Edmonton for luxury high rise condos decreased by nearly 50% from 27 transactions in 2022 to just 14 in 2023 but the number of sales over $1.5M actually doubled from 3 in 2022 to 6 in 2023 with the highest MLS sale being $3,000,000.
Further to that, the most anticipated luxury condo project in Edmonton, The Clifton was also launched in 2023. While those sales numbers are not included in the MLS statistics above it should be noted that the project is nearing 50% sellout in its first 6 months.
Despite the significant impact that interest rates have had on the buyers ability to purchase luxury condos, the overall buyer confidence is steadily increasing and that is clear with the price points being achieved in Edmonton’s downtown condo market.
Estate Style Acreages $1M+ (Strathcona County & Sturgeon County)
Shifting gears entirely, we now look at the estate style acreages. For those who seek a backyard oasis and privacy over panoramic views and close proximity to Edmonton’s core. This sector of the market has continued to grow since the early days of the pandemic. A category that seemed to be the best direction for young families looking to improve their quality of life. Especially with the work from home order, not having to deal with the extended commute, acreage living was one of the fastest growing categories at that time. So now that we have gone back to practices most similar to pre-pandemic, how has this market performed?
Looking specifically at the $1M+ sales in both Strathcona County and Sturgeon County areas, 2023 saw 70 transactions compared to 88 in 2022. A slight dip in the total number of sales but again this was more due to the significant drop in buying power from a year before. Considering that drop, these sales numbers are actually very impressive. The highest sales numbers for the respective years were both over $2.5M coming in at $2,950,000 (2022) and $2,700,000 (2023).
Overall, the year finished much better than many would have anticipated by the midway point of 2023.
If ever you are wondering how your home is positioned in the marketplace, we welcome you to contact our team for a confidential discussion about your property. Please feel free to reach out directly at 780.995.7228 or by email to [email protected].
Wishing you all the best in 2024!
